- sudden lockdown without warning bells
- exodus of migrant labour who toiled their way to home for hundreds of miles with fear, anxiety, hunger and the covid,
- families tucked in narrow constraints of their houses, rising of work from home culture,online education,zoom meetings,lesser travelling;
- un-preparedness, gross deficit of health infra and poor planning,
This draconian policy paralysis & criminal negligence & timidity on the part of governments and citizens results in- millions of deaths ...scattered corpses along the ganga river...human relations exposed to the bone... disruptive economy..hunger,fear... long covid with haunting psychosomatic issues.
Many people introspect about the purposes of their lives, and the purposes of the enterprises they serve.
society has an opportunity to reset the course of economies.
what is meant by missing deaths / excess deaths? the estimated excess deaths are overall deaths dUring the pandemic – and not necessarily due to COVID-19.“The magnitude of disease burden might have changed for many causes of death during the pandemic period due to both direct effects of lockdowns and the resulting economic turmoil
who conducted the study?
1.The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The IHME is an independent research organisation in the US.
2. Another analysis led by Prabhat Jha, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto, reported 3.2 million excess deaths (o.5 in 1st wave and 2.7 million in 2nd.wave) in India in 2020 and 2021.
3. USING HOUSEHOLD ROSTERS FROM SURVEY DATA TO ESTIMATE ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY DURING COVID IN INDIA by Anup Malani .
4.Estimates of pandemic excess mortality in India based on civil registration data ,
How they conduct the analysis? For India, the analysis team at IHME started with the civil registration system (CRS) to estimate excess deaths. To calculate excess deaths in a given year, the researchers will have needed two sets of data: one to estimate the baseline and the other to estimate the excess over that baseline.
The baseline figures came from CRS numbers for 2018 and 2019. Then they calculated the excess in 2020 and 2021. When they compared the numbers to the actual number of deaths registered in the same years, they found that the difference was a stunning 4.07 million.
they also developed a statistical model that captured the relationship between the key COVID-19-related covariates, such as seroprevalence, infection-detection ratio, and other population-level burden of disease metrics, and excess mortality rate.”
Essence of the analysis:
As many as 4.07 million people in India are estimated to have died during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, according to a new analysis. This is eight times more than the number of COVID-19 deaths India has officially registered. Even now, the official toll is only 0.5 million.
Not only india, all countries showed lesser deaths. 18.2 million people in 191 countries have died since March 2020 – versus 5.94 million officially recorded deaths.
global average of excess mortality rates during pandemic – of 120.6 per 100,000 people.
India had the highest mortality of any country during the pandemic.The second-worst-hit country is reportedly the US, with 1.13 million deaths in 24 months – 1.14-times more than its officially recorded deaths.
According to the analysis, eight states in India had mortality rates exceeding 200 deaths per 100,000 people. These states were Uttarakhand, Manipur, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Karnataka (in descending order).
Moral of the story?
Don't we learn lessons from the pandemic?
One should know the naked truth about the mortality during the covid pandemic-
India had the highest mortality of any country during the pandemic.
As many as 4.07 million people in India are estimated to have died during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, according to a new analysis. This is eight times more than the number of COVID-19 deaths India has officially registered. Even now, the official toll is only 0.5 million.
official figures for AP is just 20000 deaths due to covid. But as per the study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) published in Lancet ,the real harsh figures are 2lakh pandemic deaths.
An ongoing Supreme Court case has also been testimony to fatality undercounting during the pandemic. Many state governments have admitted, tacitly or otherwise, that they have sanctioned compensation claims for more victims than their respective registration systems have recorded.
not only the AP, the entire country should learn lessons from the pandemic. Whatever be the cause, it shows a huge mishandling of the pandemic. The death of 4 million people a massive mortality impact.
Let us not repeat the mistake.....
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