what is herd immunity?
Herd immunity happens when a virus can’t spread because it keeps encountering people who are protected against infection. Once a sufficient proportion of the population is no longer susceptible, any new outbreak peters out.”
what is the herd immunity threshold for covid?
Using the basic reproduction number R0 (the number of people a single infected person would infect in a susceptible population), for SARS-CoV-19, the herd immunity threshold is between 50 per cent and 67 per cent of the population. On a nationwide level, this means that 65-87 crore people must acquire immunity.
unofficially, the real extent of the pandemic in India is likely much higher than what the official numbers show, meaning that crores of people in the country already have antibodies.
Does this mean that the national vaccination targets can be lower because India only needs to vaccinate those who do not have antibodies?
Not quite. see, like flu viruses, post-infection immunity is not permanent, and lasts for a few months to a few years. Second, the cost of testing for antibodies is similar to the cost of vaccination. Therefore, it is necessary to immunise people regardless of whether they have previously suffered Covid-19 infection. This is true even if the vaccine itself offers only temporary protection, and must be taken on an annual basis.
How much it costs to govt to give free vaccination to 80% of people?
Roughly 80000 crores which is not such a big deal from a public finance perspective. At 0.4 per cent of India’s current GDP, it is smaller than the Rs 1 lakh crore that the Narendra Modi government has allocated for NREGA this year.
so, Affordability is not a problem.
In fact, India already does this for other diseases: the Universal Vaccination Programme provides vaccines against over a dozen major diseases free of charge to newborns and infants. The same logic applies to vaccination against Covid-19.
Is it economically viable for the govt ?
A simple cost-benefit analysis shows that a vaccination programme has high return on investment for the government. The sooner we develop immunity to the coronavirus, the better the chances of resuming economic growth.
India’s current GDP is around Rs 200 lakh crore and at an overall tax-to-GDP ratio of around 15 per cent, the Union and state governments earn around Rs 30 lakh crore in tax revenues. So for every 1 per cent of economic growth, the government gets an additional Rs 30,000 crore in tax revenues. If growth drops, government revenues fall too. In other words, even if we take a very narrow view of financial return on investment (ROI) for the government, a national vaccination programme will pay for itself within a year or two if it causes a couple of percentage points of additional economic growth. If we were to take a broader view, as is more appropriate, economic growth means that the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people will improve, as will the life chances of those disproportionately impacted by the pandemic.
కాబట్టి, మన దేశం లో 90 కోట్లమందికి కోవిద్ వాక్సిన్ అవసరం . కోల్డ్ చైన్ , సిరెంజి లు , తదితర సామగ్రితో ప్రభుత్వాలు సిద్ధంగా ఉన్నాయి. పేజ్ 3 ట్రయల్స్ పూర్తవ్వగానే నియంత్రణా సంఘాలు అనుమతులు ఇచ్చినవెంటనే , కోవిడ్ వాక్సిన్ తయారీ మొదలవుతుంది.
ఇదంతా కార్యరూపం దాల్చడానికి కనీసం 6 నెలలు పడుతుంది. అనగా వచ్చే ఉగాది కి అందరూ టీకా ల పండుగ కి సిద్ధం గా ఉండాలి.
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